Quantitative Risk Analysis Course

Is it right for me?

The workshop is suitable for project management teams, team leaders, staff involved in managing overall project risk, and bid teams. Delegates should have a good understanding of the principles of project risk management using qualitative methods, and be able to use MS Excel in terms of cell formatting and using formulae.

What will I get out of it?

By the end of the workshop delegates will be able to manage uncertainty and risk in their projects by:

• Identifying drivers causing uncertainty and risk
• Modelling and simulating scenarios using quantitative methods to consider the overall effects of uncertainty and risk
• Considering options for reducing uncertainty and the level of risk
• Developing robust plans incorporating strategies for controlling risk
• Estimating and evaluating project exposure levels in terms of cost and time
• Defining appropriate project and management contingencies and make recommendations to senior management

What does it cover?

A one-day workshop providing an introduction to project quantitative analysis and exploring the use of simulation tools and methods using a hands-on approach.

The emphasis is on applying the techniques in the early stages of a project including the development of bids. In general, it incorporates best practices recommended by the UK MOD and Association for Project Management.

Through a substantially hands on approach, delegates learn how to develop, analyse and use quantitative models and simulation techniques to support planning, decisions, identify and analyse shortcomings, and conduct 'what-if' analyses.

The workshop includes briefings and exercises using a case scenario. Delegates are encouraged to learn through application and draw conclusions from their results. Sessions cover:

Risk management overview

• A brief overview and revision of the principles of project risk management, its context and the role of quantitative simulation techniques in project risk management. Delegates will identify and analyse risks in a given scenario using qualitative approaches.

Developing basic models

• Delegates produce basic models for the given scenario in MS Excel and @Risk software. Models cover cost, time and quality aspects. Includes pre-requisites for good modelling technique, selecting appropriate areas for modelling, constructing and populating appropriate models, conducting initial runs and verification. Introduces three point estimates, probability distributions, and illustrates typical outputs generated by typical software.

Developing the risk model

• Delegates input risk information into models, interpret and evaluate results, and define appropriate actions to improve exposure and the risk profile of a project scenario. Includes analysis of interdependencies.

Evaluating exposure and contingency levels

• Provides delegates with an opportunity to define overall project exposure and possible effects for the organisation and project. Delegates establish appropriate contingencies for the case scenario.

Lessons learnt

• The final plenary session explores the lessons learnt during the workshop and considers the application of methods and lessons in the workplace. The session also covers some human factors affecting quantitative risk analysis in projects.